势不可挡
Readers’ Reflections: China’s innovation success is real global news, landing in the living rooms of Italian retirees who barely use a smartphone: Italian scientist_我的网站
A | 两年前市值超过670亿港元的洪九果品，终于迎来了清零时刻。
B |
Editor's Note:
Ahead of the opening of the 2026 World AI Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance, Chinese AI start-up Moonshot AI released its Kimi K3 large language model. As the world's largest open-source model by parameter count to date, this launch marks a significant step forward in the development of China's artificial intelligence models.
From the C919 airliner soaring into the skies to Unitree's humanoid robots stealing the show; from DeepSeek pushing the AI frontier to Moonshot AI's landmark unveiling of Kimi K3 - China's wave of homegrown innovations has dominated global headlines in recent years, delivering a steady stream of breakthroughs.
At a meeting in Beijing that brought together the national science and technology award conference, the general assemblies of the members of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), and the 11th national congress of the China Association for Science and Technology in July, Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, stressed that the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) is a critical phase for tackling tough challenges in building up the country's strength in science and technology.
"We must seize the historic opportunity, rise to the challenges of the times, accelerate efforts to achieve high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology, and make steady progress toward the 2035 goal of becoming a leading country in science and technology," he said.
In the article "Strive for Greater Strength and Self-Reliance in Science and Technology" included in the fourth volume of Xi Jinping: The Governance of China, Xi pointed out, "Through years of endeavor, our country's overall strength in science and technology has improved substantially. We therefore have a solid foundation, and are fully confident in our ability to seize the opportunities offered by the new revolution in science, technology and industry to achieve greater results." The article also mentioned that "We should participate to the full in global science and technology governance, contribute Chinese wisdom, and shape a philosophy of technology for good purposes, so that science and technology better serve human wellbeing, and enable China's science and technology industry to contribute more to building a global community of shared future."
In the 27th installment of the special series "Decoding the Book Xi Jinping: The Governance of China," the Global Times, along with the People's Daily Overseas Edition, continues to invite Chinese and foreign scholars, translators of Xi's works, practitioners with firsthand experience, and international readers to focus on the theme of striving for greater strength and self-reliance in science and technology. Together, they share views on China's tech growth, governance principles, and global cooperation in science and technology.
In the 27th article of the "Readers' Reflections" column, Global Times (GT) talked to Francesco Faiola (Faiola), an Italian professor at the Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences with Chinese Academy of Sciences and recipient of the Chinese Government Friendship Award.
GT: Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the 2026 World AI Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance on July 17. He said that as a responsible major country, China is always committed to providing international public goods relating to AI. In the article "Boost Basic Research and Achieve Greater Strength and Self-Reliance in Science and Technology" included in the fifth volume of Xi Jinping: The Governance of China, Xi said, "It is important that we adopt a more open-minded approach to international exchange and cooperation in research to create an open, globally competitive innovation ecosystem." Amid the current complex global landscape, China remains firmly committed to keeping its doors open to international scientific collaboration. In your view, where does China's confidence in this commitment come from?
Faiola: I think China's confidence in staying open comes from a deep shift in mindset. The Chinese people, especially the scientific community, now really believe they are not inferior to Westerners. For a long time, even many people here thought top science had to happen at a Western address. When I first came, I believed that too. The US and Europe seemed like the only serious places for breakthroughs. Now that idea is changing, and moving toward China, because the evidence of leadership is everywhere: stem cell standards, artificial intelligence (AI) efficiency, green manufacturing. It's undeniable. China knows it has everything needed to attract and keep international talent. It's no longer a developing country playing catch up. It's a place that's helping set the global agenda.
That self-assurance is the bedrock of openness. When you truly believe you have unique strengths, like a huge organoid screening capability or a community of scientists who think deeply, you don't fear open doors. You want colleagues from everywhere to walk through so the science moves faster. My own lab works with European centers as equals. That parity is real. But we also know not everyone abroad gets this transformation yet. A lot of people still imagine Chinese science as just following others. That's exactly why China is pushing openness harder: funding lines for foreign principal investigators, open innovation hubs in Beijing, active participation in setting international standards. These aren't defensive moves. They're proof of a country confident enough to invite the world in, show what it can do, and create knowledge together.
On a deeper level, the confidence is also just rational. The big challenges - environmental problem, pandemic preparedness and precision medicine - are global. If China closed itself off, the data and validation its own regulators need would get weaker. So, the open door isn't charity. It's the smart recognition that scientific greatness today gets multiplied when you share it.
GT: In the article "Strive for Greater Strength and Self-Reliance in Science and Technology" included in the fourth volume of Xi Jinping: The Governance of China, Xi pointed out, "Through years of endeavor, our country's overall strength in science and technology has improved substantially. We therefore have a solid foundation, and are fully confident in our ability to seize the opportunities offered by the new revolution in science, technology and industry to achieve greater results." From the domestically built large passenger jet to DeepSeek, Unitree Robotics, and Moonshot AI's Kimi K3, China's innovation achievements have been making headlines. How do you assess China's achievements in sci-tech innovation in recent years?
Faiola: I measure China's innovation success in a very personal way. My parents are old, living in a small Italian town. They don't speak English. They don't understand molecular biology. They can't read a scientific paper. But over the past few years, they've called me up more than once, excited, telling me about a Chinese airplane or a humanoid robot or some AI breakthrough they saw on Italy's main TV news or in the newspapers.
That tells me something deep. These aren't niche stories for tech insiders. They are real global news, landing in the living rooms of retirees who barely use a smartphone. I'm not bragging to them about China's progress. They are telling me. When achievements get that far into everyday European life, it's a sign China is doing something the world finds worth talking about.
The C919 plane, DeepSeek, Unitree Robotics - these aren't one-off hits. They prove China can now conceive, design, and build complex, original systems on its own, whether it's an airliner, an advanced AI model, or an agile robot. That takes deep integration across different fields, aerodynamics, materials, real time control, and AI.
DeepSeek's whole philosophy, doing more with less, is exactly how we created affordable organoid screening tools. And the quiet shift from rule taker to rule maker in chemical safety standards, that mirrors the C919's ambition to compete globally on certification. All this shows China is blending manufacturing, digital smarts, and biology into one force. But my real proof is what I hear from my students. They don't just apply discoveries from papers anymore. They question the assumptions behind them. That intellectual confidence, and the fact it echoes all the way back to a small Italian town, is why I'm sure China will fully seize this moment.
GT: President Xi said that AI development should not be a solo performance by a single country, but a symphony of international cooperation. Having conducted research in China for many years, you are not only a witness but also a driving force behind China-Europe scientific exchanges. Looking ahead, how can both sides deepen complementary advantages and achieve mutually beneficial empowerment to jointly address global challenges such as climate change and health? Over the next five years, which specific sectors should China-Europe science and technology collaboration prioritize?
Faiola: I grew up in Italy and now I lead a lab in Beijing while working with colleagues all over Europe. So, China-Europe teamwork isn't some abstract idea to me. It's how my week actually looks. The old cliché, European basic research plus Chinese scale and speed, is already outdated. Both sides now generate novel insights. The relationship has to become genuine two-way cocreation.
I see three practical things that would deepen it. First, we need truly joint funding: one grant, one integrated team, maybe a Max Planck group and a Chinese Academy of Sciences group, with a single scientific plan and students who genuinely rotate between the labs. Second, we need to harmonize regulations and ethics for organoid technologies. Europe has advanced thinking on governance. China has manufacturing scale and the drive to get things into clinics. If we co-develop shared quality and ethical standards for organoid testing, we basically set the global benchmark. A liver organoid made in Europe could then be used directly for a toxicity screen in China without repeating all the validation. Third, we need deliberate talent circulation, not a zero-sum competition. Joint PhD programs where a student naturally moves between continents.
The science doesn't care about borders. If we build the shared tools now, China and Europe can show the world a model where shared knowledge beats division.
GT: Recently, some Western media and think tanks are peddling "China Shock 2.0," claiming that China is achieving fast development in high-tech sectors such as renewable energy and AI and relies on foreign markets to absorb its overcapacity, thus reducing the market share of developed countries and sending more serious shock waves to the global economy compared with the era of traditional manufacture industry. What's your comment on this? In your view, does this represent a new pretext for Western protectionism, or is it an unavoidable external misunderstanding amid China's industrial upgrading?
Faiola: I'm a bench scientist, not a political analyst. I stick to what I can see and measure in my own work. So, I'm not going to guess what the media or think tanks intend. I'll just tell you what the facts show me, and from my lab, the "China Shock 2.0" story just doesn't match up.
In my field of stem cell toxicology, the world is desperate for human relevant safety tests to replace animal testing. Tens of thousands of chemicals still don't have proper hazard data. When Chinese labs turn out high throughput organoid platforms at a fraction of the old cost, that's not dumping "overcapacity" into a full market. It's filling a huge shortage. A researcher in Brazil or Kenya suddenly gets access to a toxicity screen that never existed for them before. Demand is skyrocketing, not standing still. Meeting that demand is a service, not a shock.
With AI, it's the same pattern. DeepSeek's efficiency makes it cheaper and easier for biomedical researchers around the world to use these tools. It's helping create new markets, not stealing a fixed pie. Sure, any big shift causes some dislocation. The answer to that is domestic support and transition policies, not blocking technologies that help solve planetary problems.
。 10月16日，嘉实基金发布公告表示，自2025年10月15日起，公司对旗下基金所持有的洪九果品估值调整，估值价格调整为0.00港元/股。一天之前，景顺长城基金也宣布，自10月14日起对旗下基金持有的该股票按照0港元的价格进行估值。 这一天来的并不令人意外。自2024年3月20日起，洪九果品就因无法按时披露财报而停牌。
C | 10月13日，洪九果品公告称，港交所上市委员会已决定取消其上市地位。虽然洪九果品已申请复核，但复牌希望非常渺茫。
D | 不出意外，洪九果品很快就要正式退市。 在从不缺故事的资本市场，洪九果品的故事也称得上“精彩”。
E | 从当年在一级市场上完成七轮融资晋升独角兽，到登陆港股成为“水果第一股”，再到市值一路飙升至600多亿港元，洪九果品有过自己的巅峰时刻。然而，上市仅仅18个月之后，洪九果品就光速陨落，财报造假、创始人被捕、股票退市，一切发生的如此之快，以至于把多只公募基金都埋了进去。 白手起家创业曾是“中国榴莲大王” 在突然暴雷之前，洪九果品经过30多年的艰苦创业，已成为中国水果行业的NO.1。 1987年，当时还只有17岁的邓洪九只身来到重庆朝天门码头，当起了“棒棒军”。在靠卖力气赚到一点钱后，邓洪九做起贩卖水果的生意，自此开始了对水果行业长达数十年的深耕。 2002年邓洪九与妻子正式创立洪九果品，专门做水果批发。在山城重庆，洪九果品的生意越做越好，逐渐小有名气，2007年还登上了央视《致富经》。
F | 随后，洪九果品又启动规模化、品牌化发展，2011年将业务线扩张至泰国，2013年推出自有水果品牌，2017年设立智利子公司，2020年又在菲律宾设立子公司。这期间，洪九果品陆续在全国17个城市设立分公司，不断扩大分销网络。 2016年，洪九果品完成了5000万元的Pre-A轮融资，从此成为一级市场上的香饽饽，连续完成了7轮融资，其中不少都是大家耳熟能详的知名机构。 2020年，洪九果品的销售收入突破50亿元。也是在这一年，阿里巴巴豪掷5.9亿元战略入股洪九果品，使其投后估值达到74亿元，一只独角兽就此诞生。 2021年，风头正盛的洪九果品向港交所递交了上市申请，并于次年9月成功敲钟，上市首日市值达到190亿港元。
G | 2023年初，洪九果品的市值达到了巅峰，最高时突破670亿港元，这是它上市前最后一轮融资估值的近10倍。 此时的洪九果品有被投资者追捧的理由，它的2022年财报堪称完美。 2022年，洪九果品的销售收入突破了150亿元人民币，同比增长46.7%，与两年前相比则翻了三倍，表现出超高的成长性。同时，2022年洪九果品经调整利润达14.55亿元，同比增长33.5%，洪九果品的毛利率继续超过行业水平，具备强大的盈利能力。
H | 也是在这一年，洪九果品登顶为中国最大的水果分销商，同时还是中国最大的东南亚水果分销商。 尤其是在榴莲和火龙果这两大强势品类，洪九果品是无可置疑的霸主，在中国的市场占有率分别可以达到12.7%和17%。中国人每吃6颗火龙果，就有1颗来自洪九果品。
I | 考虑到中国水果市场的分散、品牌化程度的低下，洪九果品几乎是创造了一个奇迹。 当时，很多研报都看好洪九果品将给中国水果市场的带来一场品牌化大变革。 在2022年3月的一份研报中，国金证券称洪九果品是“中国品牌水果产品引领者”，并认为“领先公司能够在打造新品牌方面复制其过往成功做法，从而进一步提升其市场地位”。 在品牌力上，洪九果品的确有其壁垒。 洪九果品最为人称道的是所谓“端对端”的水果供应链，通过自建冷链物流体系、直采模式，确保产品品质和供应稳定性，在进口高端水果市场所向披靡。 洪九果品的核心产品是榴莲、火龙果、龙眼、葡萄、车厘子、山竹6大品类，这6种水果能占到其总营收的六成。它们都是高价值水果，由此支撑起了洪九果品超越同行的毛利率。 对于同行来说，要想复制洪九果品的成功相当不容易。经过十多年的持续布局，洪九果品在泰国、越南等核心水果品类原产地拥有16座水果加工厂，可以做到90%左右的榴莲和火龙果都从原产地直采，不需要经过中间商。 随着中国的消费升级，疫情前中国对高品质进口水果的需求量不断增长，预期洪九果品继续维持较高的增长，应该是相当合理的预测。根据灼识咨询的数据，2016年至2020年，中国进口鲜果市场规模的年复合增长率达21.8%，大约是同期中国水果市场整体增速的3倍。
J | 还有一个看点是，洪九果品在上市后大力宣传其“洪九星桥”数字化管理系统，声称该系统能覆盖采、运、销全流程，通过数据分析驱动科学决策，实现效益最大化。洪九果品还提出过一个新业务板块——打造一个水果行业的B2B电商平台。 这一叙事精准地迎合了资本市场彼时对“产业互联网”概念的追捧，让传统的水果批发业务也变得“性感”起来。 一场纯粹的资本赌局 然而，谁能想到，2022年的年报，既是洪九果品上市后发布的第一份年报，也是最后一份年报。
K | 2024年3月20日，因审计机构毕马威对洪九果品的财报提出了质疑，导致其财报无法按期发布。洪九果品宣布“短暂停牌”，没想到这一停就停到了现在。 毕马威在审计中提出的主要疑点包括： ·洪九果品未能提供完整的会计文件以供审计； ·洪九果品的部分供应商身份可疑； ·2023年第四季度，洪九果品向上述可疑供应商的新增预付款项骤增约34.2亿元人民币； ·洪九果品管理层未能对这些巨额且异常的交易提供合理解释。 结果是毕马威选择与洪九果品解约，洪九果品的财务问题就此揭开。 马后炮而论，洪九果品的问题一直非常明显——在营收和利润都连年增长的同时，现金流却一直是负的。
L | 2019年至2022年，洪九果品的营业收入从20亿元增长到150亿元，净利润从1.63亿元增长到14.55亿元。
M | 然而这四年洪九果品经营活动产生的现金流量净额却分别为-4.50亿、-8.04亿、-9.82亿、-18.23亿，四年累计超过40亿元。 洪九果品的麻烦还不仅仅是财务造假。2025年4月16日，洪九果品公告，包括创始人邓洪九在内，公司的高管全部被采取刑事强制措施，原因是警方就公司涉嫌骗取贷款及或虚开增值税专用发票之事项进行立案侦查有关。 根据毕马威的审计、警方立案的罪名和媒体的后续报道来看，洪九果品漂亮的业绩似乎是一个纯粹的骗局。 首先洪九果品向空壳公司或关联方虚开增值税专用发票，凭空制造出巨额的销售收入和应收账款。 然后这些被夸大的应收账款，被作为优质资产抵押给银行以骗取贷款，为公司注入急需的现金。 而毕马威发现的34亿元巨额预付款，很可能并未用于真实的水果采购，而是只是被转移至由洪九果品控制的“可疑供应商”手中。
N | 这些“供应商”再将资金以“客户回款”的名义转回洪九果品，用以偿还之前虚构的应收账款。 当然，邓洪九不可能从30年前就开始布局这个骗局。比较可能的剧情是，在高速扩张的过程中，洪九果品逐渐发现现金流不支，于是心存侥幸地开始利用跨境水果贸易的便利操作空间铤而走险，于是一步步深陷泥潭。 洪九果品的商业模式，本身就存在天然的现金流缺口。 一方面，在上游采购端是“高预付”模式，为了锁定泰国、越南等地的优质水果货源，尤其是在榴莲等热门品类上获得竞争优势，洪九果品需要向上游果园提前支付大额采购款。 而在下游销售端又是“长应收”。洪九果品的主要客户，如大型商超、批发商和新零售企业，普遍采用赊账的结算方式，回款周期通常长达数月。 再加上自建冷链物流、加工厂的巨大资本开支，洪九果品的钱永远都不够用。
o | 实际上，在毕马威翻脸之前，洪九果品已经开始假借员工持股计划的名义，向自己的员工摊派融资。这基本就是暴雷的先兆信号了。 创业九死一生，破产的公司很多，不过像洪九果品这样恶劣的造假实属罕见。从股东、创始人到员工，与洪九果品沾边的所有人都付出了惨痛代价，真真正正的无人生还。每一次这样的事件，都是在拉低中国创业投资环境的下限。
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